PreMevE: New Predictive Model for Megaelectron-volt Electrons inside Earth's Outer Radiation Belt

TitlePreMevE: New Predictive Model for Megaelectron-volt Electrons inside Earth's Outer Radiation Belt
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2019
AuthorsChen, Y, Reeves, GD, Fu, X, Henderson, M
JournalSpace Weather
Date Published02/2019
Keywordsevent‐specific predictions; LANL GEO observations; linear predictive filters; MeV electron events; outer radiation belt; precipitation at low‐earth‐orbits (LEO); Van Allen Probes
AbstractThis work designs a new model called PreMevE to predict storm‐time distributions of relativistic electrons within Earth's outer radiation belt. This model takes advantage of the cross‐energy, ‐L‐shell, and –pitch‐angle coherence associated with wave‐electron resonant interactions, ingests observations from belt boundaries—mainly by NOAA POES in low‐Earth‐orbits (LEOs), and provides high‐fidelity nowcast (multiple‐hour prediction) and forecast (> ~1 day) of MeV electron fluxes over L‐shells between 2.8‐7 through linear prediction filters. PreMevE can not only reliably anticipate incoming enhancements of MeV electrons during storms with at least 1‐day forewarning time, but also accurately specify the evolving event‐specific electron spatial distributions afterwards. The performance of PreMevE is assessed against long‐term in situ data from one Van Allen Probe and a LANL geosynchronous satellite. This new model enhances our preparedness for severe MeV electron events in the future, and further adds new science utility to existing and next‐generation LEO space infrastructure.
URLhttps://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018SW002095
DOI10.1029/2018SW002095
Short TitleSpace Weather


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