Simulation of high-energy radiation belt electron fluxes using NARMAX-VERB coupled codes

Author
Keywords
Abstract
This study presents a fusion of data-driven and physics-driven methodologies of energetic electron flux forecasting in the outer radiation belt. Data-driven NARMAX (Nonlinear AutoRegressive Moving Averages with eXogenous inputs) model predictions for geosynchronous orbit fluxes have been used as an outer boundary condition to drive the physics-based Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB) code, to simulate energetic electron fluxes in the outer radiation belt environment. The coupled system has been tested for three extended time periods totalling several weeks of observations. The time periods involved periods of quiet, moderate, and strong geomagnetic activity and captured a range of dynamics typical of the radiation belts. The model has successfully simulated energetic electron fluxes for various magnetospheric conditions. Physical mechanisms that may be responsible for the discrepancies between the model results and observations are discussed.
Year of Publication
2014
Journal
Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
Date Published
10/2014
URL
http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2014JA020238
DOI
10.1002/2014JA020238