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Analysis of the effectiveness of ground-based VLF wave observations for predicting or nowcasting relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit

Poststorm relativistic electron flux enhancement at geosynchronous orbit has shown correlation with very low frequency (VLF) waves measured by satellite in situ. However, our previous study found little correlation between electron flux and VLF measured by a ground-based instrument at Halley, Antarctica. Here we explore several possible explanations for this low correlation. Using 220 storms (1992\textendash2002), our previous work developed a predictive model of the poststorm flux at geosynchronous orbit based on explanator ...

Simms, Laura; Engebretson, Mark; Smith, A.; Clilverd, Mark; Pilipenko, Viacheslav; Reeves, Geoffrey;

YEAR: 2015     DOI: 10.1002/2014JA020337

relativistic electron flux; VLF waves


Prediction of relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit following storms: Multiple regression analysis

Many solar wind and magnetosphere parameters correlate with relativistic electron flux following storms. These include relativistic electron flux before the storm; seed electron flux; solar wind velocity and number density (and their variation); interplanetary magnetic field Bz, AE and Kp indices; and ultra low frequency (ULF) and very low frequency (VLF) wave power. However, as all these variables are intercorrelated, we use multiple regression analyses to determine which are the most predictive of flux when other variables ...

Simms, Laura; Pilipenko, Viacheslav; Engebretson, Mark; Reeves, Geoffrey; Smith, A.; Clilverd, Mark;

YEAR: 2014     DOI: 10.1002/jgra.v119.910.1002/2014JA019955

empirical modeling; multiple regression; multivariable analysis