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We describe a lightweight, accurate nowcasting model for electron flux levels measured by the Van Allen probes. Largely motivated by Rigler et al. , we turn to a time-varying linear filter of previous flux levels and Kp. We train and test this model on data gathered from the 2.10 MeV channel of the Relativistic Electron-Proton Telescope (REPT) sensor onboard the Van Allen probes. Dynamic linear models are a specific case of state space models, and can be made flexible enough to emulate the nonlinear behavior of particl ...
YEAR: 2018   DOI: 10.1029/2017SW001788