Bibliography

Reconstructing the dynamics of the outer electron radiation belt by means of the standard and ensemble Kalman filter with the VERB-3D code

Abstract Reconstruction and prediction of the state of the near-Earth space environment is important for anomaly analysis, development of empirical models and understanding of physical processes. Accurate reanalysis or predictions that account for uncertainties in the associated model and the observations, can be obtained by means of data assimilation. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is one of the most promising filtering tools for non-linear and high dimensional systems in the context of terrestrial weather prediction. In ...

Tibocha, A.; de Wiljes, J.; Shprits, Y; Aseev, N.;

Published by: Space Weather      Published on: 08/2021

YEAR: 2021     DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020SW002672

Kalman Filter; Ensemble Kalman filter; forecasting; Van Allen Probes

A combined neural network- and physics-based approach for modeling plasmasphere dynamics

AbstractIn recent years, feedforward neural networks (NNs) have been successfully applied to reconstruct global plasmasphere dynamics in the equatorial plane. These neural network-based models capture the large-scale dynamics of the plasmasphere, such as plume formation and erosion of the plasmasphere on the nightside. However, their performance depends strongly on the availability of training data. When the data coverage is limited or non-existent, as occurs during geomagnetic storms, the performance of NNs significantly de ...

Zhelavskaya, I.; Aseev, N.; Shprits, Y;

Published by: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics      Published on: 02/2021

YEAR: 2021     DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JA028077

plasmasphere; plasma density; neural networks; data assimilation; Kalman Filter; Machine learning; Van Allen Probes

Quantifying the Effects of EMIC Wave Scattering and Magnetopause Shadowing in the Outer Electron Radiation Belt by Means of Data Assimilation

In this study we investigate two distinct loss mechanisms responsible for the rapid dropouts of radiation belt electrons by assimilating data from Van Allen Probes A and B and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) 13 and 15 into a 3-D diffusion model. In particular, we examine the respective contribution of electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) wave scattering and magnetopause shadowing for values of the first adiabatic invariant μ ranging from 300 to 3,000 MeV G−1. We inspect the innovation vector ...

Cervantes, S.; Shprits, Y; Aseev, N.; Allison, H.;

Published by: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics      Published on: 08/2020

YEAR: 2020     DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JA028208

data assimilation; EMIC waves; magnetopause shadowing; innovation vector; Kalman Filter; radiation belt losses; Van Allen Probes

Reanalysis of Ring Current Electron Phase Space Densities Using Van Allen Probe Observations, Convection Model, and Log-Normal Kalman Filter

Aseev, N.; Shprits, Y;

Published by: Space Weather      Published on: 04/2019

YEAR: 2019     DOI: 10.1029/2018SW002110

data assimilation; inner magnetosphere; Kalman Filter; Reanalysis; ring current; Van Allen Probes

Reanalysis of ring current electron phase space densities using Van Allen Probe observations, convection model, and log-normal Kalman filter

Models of ring current electron dynamics unavoidably contain uncertainties in boundary conditions, electric and magnetic fields, electron scattering rates, and plasmapause location. Model errors can accumulate with time and result in significant deviations of model predictions from observations. Data assimilation offers useful tools which can combine physics-based models and measurements to improve model predictions. In this study, we systematically analyze performance of the Kalman filter applied to a log-transformed convec ...

Aseev, N.A.; Shprits, Y.Y.;

Published by: Space Weather      Published on: 04/2019

YEAR: 2019     DOI: 10.1029/2018SW002110

data assimilation; inner magnetosphere; Kalman Filter; Reanalysis; ring current; Van Allen Probes

Operational Nowcasting of Electron Flux Levels in the Outer Zone of Earth\textquoterights Radiation Belt

We describe a lightweight, accurate nowcasting model for electron flux levels measured by the Van Allen probes. Largely motivated by Rigler et al. [2004], we turn to a time-varying linear filter of previous flux levels and Kp. We train and test this model on data gathered from the 2.10 MeV channel of the Relativistic Electron-Proton Telescope (REPT) sensor onboard the Van Allen probes. Dynamic linear models are a specific case of state space models, and can be made flexible enough to emulate the nonlinear behavior of particl ...

Coleman, Tim; McCollough, James; Young, Shawn; Rigler, E.;

Published by: Space Weather      Published on: 04/2018

YEAR: 2018     DOI: 10.1029/2017SW001788

forecasting; Kalman Filter; Van Allen Probes