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Prediction of MeV electron fluxes throughout the outer radiation belt using multivariate autoregressive models

The Van Allen radiation belts surrounding the Earth are filled with MeV-energy electrons. This region poses ionizing radiation risks for spacecraft that operate within it, including those in geostationary (GEO) and medium Earth orbit (MEO). To provide alerts of electron flux enhancements, sixteen prediction models of the electron log-flux variation throughout the equatorial outer radiation belt as a function of the McIlwain L parameter were developed using the multivariate autoregressive model and Kalman filter. Measurements ...

Sakaguchi, Kaori; Nagatsuma, Tsutomu; Reeves, Geoffrey; Spence, Harlan;

YEAR: 2015     DOI: 10.1002/2015SW001254

outer radiation belt; Practical prediction model; Van Allen Probes