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Reconstruction of the Radiation Belts for Solar Cycles 17 – 24 (1933 – 2017)

AbstractWe present a reconstruction of the dynamics of the radiation belts from Solar Cycles 17 – 24 which allows us to study how radiation belt activity has varied between the different solar cycles. The radiation belt simulations are produced using the Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB)-3D code. The VERB-3D code simulations incorporate radial, energy, and pitch angle diffusion to reproduce the radiation belts. Our simulations use the historical measurements of Kp (available since Solar Cycle 17, i.e., 1933) to mode ...

Saikin, A.; . Y. Shprits, Y; . Y. Drozdov, A; Landis, D.; Zhelavskaya, I.; Cervantes, S.;

YEAR: 2021     DOI:

Radiation belts; numerical modeling; Particle acceleration; Magnetosphere: inner; forecasting; Van Allen Probes


Operational Nowcasting of Electron Flux Levels in the Outer Zone of Earth\textquoterights Radiation Belt

We describe a lightweight, accurate nowcasting model for electron flux levels measured by the Van Allen probes. Largely motivated by Rigler et al. [2004], we turn to a time-varying linear filter of previous flux levels and Kp. We train and test this model on data gathered from the 2.10 MeV channel of the Relativistic Electron-Proton Telescope (REPT) sensor onboard the Van Allen probes. Dynamic linear models are a specific case of state space models, and can be made flexible enough to emulate the nonlinear behavior of particl ...

Coleman, Tim; McCollough, James; Young, Shawn; Rigler, E.;

YEAR: 2018     DOI: 10.1029/2017SW001788

forecasting; Kalman Filter; Van Allen Probes