Bibliography

The main pillar: Assessment of space weather observational asset performance supporting nowcasting, forecasting, and research to operations

Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth\textquoterights magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations.

Posner, A.; Hesse, M.; St. Cyr, O.;

Published by: Space Weather      Published on: 04/2014

YEAR: 2014     DOI: 10.1002/swe.v12.410.1002/2013SW001007

Assessment; Space Hardware; SWx Forecasting; Van Allen Probes

Substorm electron injections: Geosynchronous observations and test particle simulations

We investigate electron acceleration and the flux increases associated with energetic electron injections on the basis of geosynchronous observations and test-electron orbits in the dynamic fields of a three-dimensional MHD simulation of neutral line formation and dipolarization in the magnetotail. This complements an earlier investigation of test protons [Birn et al., 1997b]. In the present paper we consider equatorial orbits only, using the gyrocenter drift approximation. It turns out that this approximation is valid for electrons prior to and during the flux rises observed in the near tail region of the model at all energies considered (\~ 100 eV to 1 MeV). The test particle model reproduces major observed characteristics: a fast flux rise, comparable to that of the ions, and the existence of five categories of dispersionless events, typical for observations at different local times. They consist of dispersionless injections of ions or electrons without accompanying injections of the other species, delayed electron injections and delayed ion injections, and simultaneous two-species injections. As postulated from observations [Birn et al., 1997a], these categories can be attributed to a dawn-dusk displacement of the ion and electron injection boundaries in combination with an earthward motion or expansion. The simulated electron injection region extends farther toward dusk at lower energies (say, below 40 keV) than at higher energies. This explains the existence of observed energetic ion injections that are accompanied by electron flux increases at the lower energies but not by an energetic electron injection at energies above 50 keV. The simulated distributions show that flux increases are limited in energy, as observed. The reason for this limitation and for the differences between the injection regions at different energies is the localization in the dawn-dusk direction of the tail collapse and the associated cross-tail electric field, in combination with a difference in the relative importance of E \texttimes B drift and gradient drifts at different energies. The results demonstrate that the collapsing field region earthward of the neutral line appears to be more significant than the neutral line itself for the acceleration of electrons, particularly for the initial rise of the fluxes and the injection boundary. This is similar to the result obtained for test ions [Birn et al., 1997b].

Birn, J.; Thomsen, M.; Borovsky, J.; Reeves, G.; McComas, D.; Belian, R.; Hesse, M.;

Published by: Journal of Geophysical Research      Published on: 05/1998

YEAR: 1998     DOI: 10.1029/97JA02635

Substorm Injections