Bibliography

Analysis of the effectiveness of ground-based VLF wave observations for predicting or nowcasting relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit

Poststorm relativistic electron flux enhancement at geosynchronous orbit has shown correlation with very low frequency (VLF) waves measured by satellite in situ. However, our previous study found little correlation between electron flux and VLF measured by a ground-based instrument at Halley, Antarctica. Here we explore several possible explanations for this low correlation. Using 220 storms (1992\textendash2002), our previous work developed a predictive model of the poststorm flux at geosynchronous orbit based on explanatory variables measured a day or two before the flux increase. In a nowcast model, we use averages of variables from the time period when flux is rising during the recovery phase of geomagnetic storms and limit the VLF (1.0 kHz) measure to the dawn period at Halley (09:00\textendash12:00 UT). This improves the simple correlation of VLF wave intensity with flux, although the VLF effect in an overall multiple regression is still much less than that of other factors. When analyses are performed separately for season and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz orientation, VLF outweighs the influence of other factors only during winter months when IMF Bz is in an average northward orientation.

Simms, Laura; Engebretson, Mark; Smith, A.; Clilverd, Mark; Pilipenko, Viacheslav; Reeves, Geoffrey;

Published by: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics      Published on: 03/2015

YEAR: 2015     DOI: 10.1002/2014JA020337

relativistic electron flux; VLF waves

Prediction of relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit following storms: Multiple regression analysis

Many solar wind and magnetosphere parameters correlate with relativistic electron flux following storms. These include relativistic electron flux before the storm; seed electron flux; solar wind velocity and number density (and their variation); interplanetary magnetic field Bz, AE and Kp indices; and ultra low frequency (ULF) and very low frequency (VLF) wave power. However, as all these variables are intercorrelated, we use multiple regression analyses to determine which are the most predictive of flux when other variables are controlled. Using 219 storms (1992\textendash2002), we obtained hourly averaged electron fluxes for outer radiation belt relativistic electrons (>1.5 MeV) and seed electrons (100 keV) from Los Alamos National Laboratory spacecraft (geosynchronous orbit). For each storm, we found the log10 maximum relativistic electron flux 48\textendash120 h after the end of the main phase of each storm. Each predictor variable was averaged over the 12 h before the storm, the main phase, and the 48 h following minimum Dst. High levels of flux following storms are best modeled by a set of variables. In decreasing influence, ULF, seed electron flux, Vsw and its variation, and after-storm Bz were the most significant explanatory variables. Kp can be added to the model, but it adds no further explanatory power. Although we included ground-based VLF power from Halley, Antarctica, it shows little predictive ability. We produced predictive models using the coefficients from the regression models and assessed their effectiveness in predicting novel observations. The correlation between observed values and those predicted by these empirical models ranged from 0.645 to 0.795.

Simms, Laura; Pilipenko, Viacheslav; Engebretson, Mark; Reeves, Geoffrey; Smith, A.; Clilverd, Mark;

Published by: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics      Published on: 09/2014

YEAR: 2014     DOI: 10.1002/jgra.v119.910.1002/2014JA019955

empirical modeling; multiple regression; multivariable analysis