Bibliography

Defining Radiation Belt Enhancement Events Based on Probability Distributions

We present a methodology to define moderate, strong, and intense space weather events based on probability distributions. We have illustrated this methodology using a long-duration, uniform data set of 1.8–3.5 MeV electron fluxes from multiple LANL geosynchronous satellite instruments, but a strength of this methodology is that it can be applied uniformly to heterogeneous data sets. It allows quantitative comparison of data sets with different energies, units, orbits, and so forth. The methodology identifies a range of times, “events,” using variable flux thresholds to determine average event occurrence in arbitrary 11-year intervals (“cycles”). We define moderate, strong, and intense events as those that occur 100, 10, and 1 time per cycle and identify the flux thresholds that produce those occurrence frequencies. The methodology does not depend on any ancillary data set (e.g., solar wind or geomagnetic conditions). We show event probabilities using GOES > 2 MeV fluxes and compare them against event probabilities using LANL 1.8–3.5 MeV fluxes. We present some examples of how the methodology picks out moderate, strong, and intense events and how those events are distributed in time: 1989 through 2018, which includes the declining phases of solar cycles 22, 23, and 24. We also provide an illustrative comparison of moderate and strong events identified in the geosynchronous data with Van Allen Probes observations across all L-shells. We also provide a catalog of start and stop times of moderate, strong, and intense events that can be used for future studies.

Reeves, Geoffrey; Vandegriff, Elizabeth; Niehof, Jonathan; Morley, Steven; Cunningham, Gregory; Henderson, Michael; Larsen, Brian;

Published by: Space Weather      Published on: 06/2020

YEAR: 2020     DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020SW002528

Radiation belts; methods; geosynchronous; energetic particles; hazards; Solar Cycle; Van Allen Probes

An empirical model of electron and ion fluxes derived from observations at geosynchronous orbit

Knowledge of the plasma fluxes at geosynchronous orbit is important to both scientific and operational investigations. We present a new empirical model of the ion flux and the electron flux at geosynchronous orbit (GEO) in the energy range ~1 eV to ~40 keV. The model is based on a total of 82 satellite years of observations from the magnetospheric plasma analyzer instruments on Los Alamos National Laboratory satellites at GEO. These data are assigned to a fixed grid of 24 local times and 40 energies, at all possible values of Kp. Bilinear interpolation is used between grid points to provide the ion flux and the electron flux values at any energy and local time, and for given values of geomagnetic activity (proxied by the 3 h Kp index), and also for given values of solar activity (proxied by the daily F10.7 index). Initial comparison of the electron flux from the model with data from a Compact Environmental Anomaly Sensor II, also located at geosynchronous orbit, indicates a good match during both quiet and disturbed periods. The model is available for distribution as a FORTRAN code that can be modified to suit user requirements.

Denton, M.; Thomsen, M.; Jordanova, V.; Henderson, M.; Borovsky, J.; Denton, J.; Pitchford, D.; Hartley, D.;

Published by: Space Weather      Published on: 04/2015

YEAR: 2015     DOI: 10.1002/2015SW001168

geosynchronous