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Simulation of high-energy radiation belt electron fluxes using NARMAX-VERB coupled codes


AuthorPakhotin, I.; Drozdov, A; Shprits, Y; Boynton, R.; Subbotin, D.; Balikhin, M.;
KeywordsRadiation belts; Space weather
AbstractThis study presents a fusion of data-driven and physics-driven methodologies of energetic electron flux forecasting in the outer radiation belt. Data-driven NARMAX (Nonlinear AutoRegressive Moving Averages with eXogenous inputs) model predictions for geosynchronous orbit fluxes have been used as an outer boundary condition to drive the physics-based Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB) code, to simulate energetic electron fluxes in the outer radiation belt environment. The coupled system has been tested for three extended time periods totalling several weeks of observations. The time periods involved periods of quiet, moderate, and strong geomagnetic activity and captured a range of dynamics typical of the radiation belts. The model has successfully simulated energetic electron fluxes for various magnetospheric conditions. Physical mechanisms that may be responsible for the discrepancies between the model results and observations are discussed.
Year of Publication2014
JournalJournal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
Volume
Number of Pages
Section
Date Published10/2014
ISBN
URLhttp://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2014JA020238
DOI10.1002/2014JA020238