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2021 
Abstract Equatorial magnetosonic waves, together with chorus and plasmaspheric hiss, play key roles in the dynamics of energetic electron fluxes in the magnetosphere. Numerical models, developed following a first principles approach, that are used to study the evolution of high energy electron fluxes are mainly based on quasilinear diffusion. The application of such numerical codes requires statistical models for the distribution of key magnetospheric wave modes to estimate the appropriate diffusion coefficients. These waves are generally statistically modelled as a function of spatial location and geomagnetic indices (e.g. AE, Kp, or Dst). This study presents a novel dynamic spatiotemporal model for equatorial magnetosonic (EMS) wave amplitude, developed using the Nonlinear AutoRegressive Moving Average eXogenous (NARMAX) machine learning approach. The EMS wave amplitude, measured by the Van Allen Probes, are modelled using the time lags of the solar wind and geomagnetic indices as inputs as well as the location at which the measurement is made. The resulting model performance is assessed on a separate Van Allen Probes dataset, where the prediction efficiency was found to be 34.0\% and the correlation coefficient was 56.9\%. With more training and validation data the performance metrics could potentially be improved, however, it is also possible that the EMS wave distribution is affected by stochastic factors and the performance metrics obtained for this model are close to the potential maximum. Boynton, R.; Walker, S.; Aryan, H.; Hobara, Y.; Balikhin, M.; Published by: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics Published on: 06/2021 YEAR: 2021 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JA028439 magnetosonic waves; Machine learning; NARMAX; Van Allen Probes 
2020 
MultiParameter Chorus and Plasmaspheric Hiss Wave Models Abstract The resonant interaction of energetic particles with plasma waves, such as chorus and plasmaspheric hiss waves, plays a direct and crucial role in the acceleration and loss of radiation belt electrons that ultimately affect the dynamics of the radiation belts. In this study, we use the comprehensive wave data measurements made by the Electric and Magnetic Field Instrument Suite and Integrated Science instruments on board the two Van Allen probes, to develop multiparameter statistical chorus and plasmaspheric hiss wave models. The models of chorus and plasmaspheric hiss waves are presented as a function of combined geomagnetic activity (AE), solar wind velocity (V), and southward interplanetary magnetic field (Bs). The relatively smooth wave models reveal new features. Despite, the coupling between geomagnetic and solar wind parameters, the results show that each parameter still carries a sufficient amount of unique information to more accurately constrain the chorus and plasmaspheric hiss wave intensities. The new wave models presented here highlight the importance of multiparameter wave models, and can improve radiation belt modeling. Aryan, Homayon; Bortnik, Jacob; Meredith, Nigel; Horne, Richard; Sibeck, David; Balikhin, Michael; Published by: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics Published on: 12/2020 YEAR: 2020 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JA028403 chorus waves; inner magnetosphere; multi parameter wave distribution; plasmaspheric hiss waves; Van Allen Probes; waveparticle interactions 
The flux of energetic electrons in the outer radiation belt shows a high variability. The interactions of electrons with very low frequency (VLF) chorus waves play a significant role in controlling the flux variation of these particles. Quantifying the effects of these interactions is crucially important for accurately modeling the global dynamics of the outer radiation belt and to provide a comprehensive description of electron flux variations over a wide energy range (from the source population of 30 keV electrons up to the relativistic core population of the outer radiation belt). Here, we use a synthetic chorus wave model based on a combined database compiled from the Van Allen Probes and Cluster spacecraft VLF measurements to develop a comprehensive parametric model of electron lifetimes as a function of Lshell, electron energy, and geomagnetic activity. The wave model takes into account the wave amplitude dependence on geomagnetic latitude, wave normal angle distribution, and variations of wave frequency with latitude. We provide general analytical formulas to estimate electron lifetimes as a function of Lshell (for L = 3.0 to L = 6.5), electron energy (from 30 keV to 2 MeV), and geomagnetic activity parameterized by the AE index. The present model lifetimes are compared to previous studies and analytical results and also show a good agreement with measured lifetimes of 30 to 300 keV electrons at geosynchronous orbit. Aryan, Homayon; Agapitov, Oleksiy; Artemyev, Anton; Mourenas, Didier; Balikhin, Michael; Boynton, Richard; Bortnik, Jacob; Published by: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics Published on: 07/2020 YEAR: 2020 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JA028018 electron lifetimes; Van Allen radiation belts; chorus waves; pitch angle diffusion coefficients; Van Allen Probes; Cluster 
2017 
CIMI simulations with newly developed multiparameter chorus and plasmaspheric hiss wave models Numerical simulation studies of the Earth\textquoterights radiation belts are important to understand the acceleration and loss of energetic electrons. The Comprehensive Inner MagnetosphereIonosphere (CIMI) model considers the effects of the ring current and plasmasphere on the radiation belts to obtain plausible results. The CIMI model incorporates pitch angle, energy, and cross diffusion of electrons, due to chorus and plasmaspheric hiss waves. These parameters are calculated using statistical wave distribution models of chorus and plasmaspheric hiss amplitudes. However, currently these wave distribution models are based only on a single parameter, geomagnetic index (AE), and could potentially underestimate the wave amplitudes. Here we incorporate recently developed multiparameter chorus and plasmaspheric hiss wave models based on geomagnetic index and solar wind parameters. We then perform CIMI simulations for two geomagnetic storms and compare the flux enhancement of MeV electrons with data from the Van Allen Probes and Akebono satellites. We show that the relativistic electron fluxes calculated with multiparameter wave models resembles the observations more accurately than the relativistic electron fluxes calculated with singleparameter wave models. This indicates that wave models based on a combination of geomagnetic index and solar wind parameters are more effective as inputs to radiation belt models. Aryan, Homayon; Sibeck, David; Bin Kang, Suk; Balikhin, Michael; Fok, MeiChing; Agapitov, Oleksiy; Komar, Colin; Kanekal, Shrikanth; Nagai, Tsugunobu; Published by: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics Published on: 08/2017 YEAR: 2017 DOI: 10.1002/2017JA024159 Chorus and plasmaspheric hiss wave models; CIMI numerical simulations; Geomagnetic storm events; Radiation belt electron flux enhancements; Van Allen Probes; VLF waves; Waveparticle interaction 
2016 
Highly energetic electrons in the Earth\textquoterights Van Allen radiation belts can cause serious damage to spacecraft electronic systems and affect the atmospheric composition if they precipitate into the upper atmosphere. Whistler mode chorus waves have attracted significant attention in recent decades for their crucial role in the acceleration and loss of energetic electrons that ultimately change the dynamics of the radiation belts. The distribution of these waves in the inner magnetosphere is commonly presented as a function of geomagnetic activity. However, geomagnetic indices are nonspecific parameters that are compiled from imperfectly covered ground based measurements. The present study uses wave data from the two Van Allen Probes to present the distribution of lower band chorus waves not only as functions of single geomagnetic index and solar wind parameters but also as functions of combined parameters. Also the current study takes advantage of the unique equatorial orbit of the Van Allen Probes to estimate the average scale size of chorus wave packets, during close separations between the two spacecraft, as a function of radial distance, magnetic latitude, and geomagnetic activity, respectively. Results show that the average scale size of chorus wave packets is approximately 1300\textendash2300 km. The results also show that the inclusion of combined parameters can provide better representation of the chorus wave distributions in the inner magnetosphere and therefore can further improve our knowledge of the acceleration and loss of radiation belt electrons. Aryan, Homayon; Sibeck, David; Balikhin, Michael; Agapitov, Oleksiy; Kletzing, Craig; Published by: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics Published on: 08/2016 YEAR: 2016 DOI: 10.1002/jgra.v121.810.1002/2016JA022775 distribution of chorus wave intensities in the inner magnetosphere; inner magnetosphere; Radiation belts; scale size of chorus wave packets; Van Allen Probes; Waveparticle interaction 
2014 
Simulation of highenergy radiation belt electron fluxes using NARMAXVERB coupled codes This study presents a fusion of datadriven and physicsdriven methodologies of energetic electron flux forecasting in the outer radiation belt. Datadriven NARMAX (Nonlinear AutoRegressive Moving Averages with eXogenous inputs) model predictions for geosynchronous orbit fluxes have been used as an outer boundary condition to drive the physicsbased Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB) code, to simulate energetic electron fluxes in the outer radiation belt environment. The coupled system has been tested for three extended time periods totalling several weeks of observations. The time periods involved periods of quiet, moderate, and strong geomagnetic activity and captured a range of dynamics typical of the radiation belts. The model has successfully simulated energetic electron fluxes for various magnetospheric conditions. Physical mechanisms that may be responsible for the discrepancies between the model results and observations are discussed. Pakhotin, I.; Drozdov, A; Shprits, Y; Boynton, R.; Subbotin, D.; Balikhin, M.; Published by: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics Published on: 10/2014 YEAR: 2014 DOI: 10.1002/2014JA020238 
Statistical analysis of electron lifetimes at GEO: Comparisons with chorusdriven losses The population of electrons in the Earth\textquoterights outer radiation belt increases when the magnetosphere is exposed to highspeed streams of solar wind, coronal mass ejections, magnetic clouds, or other disturbances. After this increase, the number of electrons decays back to approximately the initial population. This study statistically analyzes the lifetimes of the electron at Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) from Los Alamos National Laboratory electron flux data. The decay rate of the electron fluxes are calculated for 14 energies ranging from 24 keV to 3.5 MeV to identify a relationship between the lifetime and energy of the electrons. The statistical data show that electron lifetimes increase with energy. Also, the statistical results show a good agreement up to \~1 MeV with an analytical model of lifetimes, where electron losses are caused by their resonant interaction with oblique chorus waves, using average wave intensities obtained from Cluster statistics. However, above 500 keV, the measured lifetimes increase with energy becomes less steep, almost stopping. This could partly stem from the difficultly of identifying lifetimes larger than 10 days, for high energy, with the methods and instruments of the present study at GEO. It could also result from the departure of the actual geomagnetic field from a dipolar shape, since a compressed field on the dayside should preferentially increase chorusinduced losses at high energies. However, during nearly quiet geomagnetic conditions corresponding to lifetime measurement periods, it is more probably an indication that outward radial diffusion imposes some kind of upper limit on lifetimes of highenergy electrons near geostationary orbit. Boynton, R.; Balikhin, M.; Mourenas, D.; Published by: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics Published on: 08/2014 YEAR: 2014 DOI: 10.1002/2014JA019920 
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